the Cy Young race

the kenyan · Sep 3, 2010

i decided to put this in a thread of it's own to draw attention to the absolutely sick season that the kid (bucky (buchholz)) is having, and frankly because no one would read the damn thing if i put it in the sox thread <img alt="" src="http://files.kickrunners.com/smilies/sad5.gif" title="">. You know it's going well for you when you turn in a quality start (6+ innings 3ER or less) and risk your ERA going up. The sicker thing is that he's sporting a 2.21 and isnt even the frontrunner in the damn race, thanks to Chunky Chubby Sabathia and the preponderance of the yanquis to win games for him. I'm hoping that the kid can string together some wins at the end here to get himself on the north side of 20, but he pretty much has to win out and have Chunky Chubby stumble through the rest of the way.
 
Mostly i'm just pumped that the kid is finally performing at/above expectation after a couple bumps in the road. When he's got his head about him he's damn near unstoppable.
 
Any input into the NL race? I confess to not knowing a damn thing about whats going on over there?

gatorbob · Sep 3, 2010

I agree that right now, Buchholz is more deserving than Sabathia. ERA is a much better indicator of how good a pitcher is than Win total. But for some reason, the voters are fascinated with Wins. Especially that "magic" number of 20. Sabathia is pretty much assured of getting to 20, and like you said, Buchholz might need to win out to do it. So despite an ERA almost a run higher, Sabathia is clearly the front-runner now...

the kenyan · Sep 3, 2010

if the kid has a september that was anything like his august (4-0, 1.fucking03 ERA), then i think he's got a good shot and i'll probably throw a hissy fit if he doesnt get it.
 
They did give it to Greinke last year, who finished 16-8, played for a pitiful team and had an ERA similar to that of the kid......so the fact that they were willing to give the nod to ERA over wins & team performance is a bit encouraging at least.

jcumming · Sep 4, 2010

They will give it to someone on a terrible team (and Greinke was fully deserving) but I think not as likely to someone on a third place team unless the stats absolutely demand it.
 
Even though Buchholz matches up favourably in almost all categories I would probably put a small bet on David Price since the Rays will be going to the playoffs and the Red Sox won't.

yar · Sep 5, 2010

dark horse in AL - CJ Wilson.
 
yar

Arrojo · Sep 5, 2010

Buchholz and Wainright.

the kenyan · Sep 8, 2010

<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100907&content_id=14410056&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb" target="_blank">http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100907&content_id=14410056&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb</a>
 
CCLOSES!!!
 
<img alt="" src="http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/7070/3660349ori.gif" style="border:0px solid;">

Hanging Jury · Sep 8, 2010

The Orioles are glad to help out and beat CC!

gatorbob · Sep 17, 2010

I think the AL Cy Young race is still up for grabs. Sabathia still has the win lead, but he hasn't helped himself by not getting his 20th win yet. Buchholz' recent little spin took him out of the ERA lead. Price is right there. Hernandez has all the numbers, except the all-important win total. Here are the current ERA leaders in the AL. The winner will surely be one of these guys...
 
 
<a class="H-lightbox-open" href="http://www.kickrunners.com/content/type/61/id/57309/width/1000/height/800/flags/" target="_blank"><img alt="Leaders.jpg" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="14033" data-type="61" src="http://www.kickrunners.com/content/type/61/id/14033/width/755/height/238" style="; width: 755px; height: 238px"></a>

the kenyan · Sep 17, 2010

extremely tight. 'King Felix' must have the most mismatched ERA/win-loss record I've ever seen. Talk about hating your offense. As it stands now, giving it to CC makes no sense whatsoever. The ERA was really the thing that Bucky had going for him....I think he needs to regain the lead in that department to have a chance. This one is pretty much going to come down to the last start with about 6 guys who have a legitimate shot.

hazelrah · Sep 17, 2010

Based on the above table I would give the nod to Felix H. Buchholz is worth consideration but the innings pitched hurts him in my book. Felix has pitched almost a third of a season more then him. I also check out the difference between runs and ER. 17 for Felix H. That means his defense is really bad too or they have a really strict official scorer up in Seattle. But I do not see anyone jumping off the page compared with the others, you can make a good argument for several of them. That usually means the Yankee gets it.
 
I do not put allot of weight on wins & losses for pitcher stats because that is often out of the pitcher's control. This does not have anything to do with Felix being on a crappy team, I am trying to factor that out of the equation to the best of my ability by focusing on who got the most people out for the longest time without giving up runs, which to me is the pitcher's job. That would mean ERA, WHIP and IP are the first stats I looks at. For relievers I would put allot of weight on inherited runners scored too, but this is for starters. One thing I hate about ERA is that if there is a 2 out error the pitcher has carte blanche to give up a jillion runs without it counting against his ERA. I would like to see only the one run per error be deducted from the pitchers ER total. And not even that if it is an error committed by the pitcher himself. If comes on a 2 out throwing error with the bases loaded and three runs score, tough, you should not have loaded the bases in the first place. Just my opinion.

gatorbob · Sep 24, 2010

It's been another week, so I'll once again post the leading candidates' stats. Here are the top ten guys in the AL by ERA. 
 
At this point, I think Hernandez, Price and Sabathia are the only guys still in the running. Yeah, Buchholz has good numbers, but I don't think he has any chance. In order to include him, you have to say that it doesn't matter than CC has 4 more wins. But if that's the case, then it shouldn't matter that King Felix has 4 fewer wins. Like Hazelrah says, Buchholz just hasn't thrown enough innings to really challenge for it. 
 
Hernandez' numbers are soooooooo much better than anyone else's in every category -- except for wins. Can the Cy Young actually go to a guy who has a .500 record? You know what, I think it will. All along, I thought Sabathia was the front-runner because of his win total. But he just went head-to-head with Price twice in the last week and a half, and the Yankees lost both games. Yeah, Sabathia pitched fine the first time. But he got shelled yesterday. 
 
Each guy has another start or two. But if I had to guess right now, I'd say Hernandez will win, Price second, CC third, with Lester and Buchholz a distant fourth and fifth in one order or the other. 
 
 
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Notey · Sep 24, 2010

Hernandez should get it, but he won't. The voters put too much emphasis on wins. As a result, Lester might garner some consideration if he can reel off a couple of good wins to finish out the season.

mmoonptdeux · Sep 24, 2010

I wish he would too - I think I heard ESPN mention that in Hernandez's 12 losses, the M's have given a total of 14 runs of support.
 
Contrast that to folks like Lester, Price, Buchholz and Sabathia, who have all gotten quite a bit of run support from their respective teams.
 
Cahill is an interesting case - doing quite a good job for a mediocre team who has given him middle-of-the-road run support. But if you're going to go that route, I'd say what would Hernandez have done if he had even a mediocre offense behind him like the A's instead of a horrid one like the M's 

<div class="quote-container">Quote:
<div class="quote-block">Originally Posted by Notey <a href="/forum/thread/69906/the-cy-young-race#post_1948404"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" style="border-right:0px solid;border-top:0px solid;border-left:0px solid;border-bottom:0px solid;"></a> Hernandez should get it, but he won't. The voters put too much emphasis on wins. As a result, Lester might garner some consideration if he can reel off a couple of good wins to finish out the season.
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gatorbob · Sep 29, 2010

I just heard SI's Tom Verducci on ESPN Radio here in New York. He calls Hernandez the clear front-runner. He says that since the Cy Young award was first given out (1956), 10 American League pitchers have led the league in Innings, ERA, and Strikeouts, and all 10 have won the Cy Young. He also said that Hernandez is only the second pitcher to start at least 34 games, have an ERA under 2.30, and have as few as 13 wins. The only other one was Walter Johnson in 1906. (That was on a last-place team in the dead-ball era). That's how amazingly unusual Hernandez' season has been. 
 
Well, I agree. The award should go to Hernandez. But I'm still not sure it will. I think a lot of voters will be turned off by that win total. I think I read somewhere that Greinke's 16 wins last year were the fewest ever for a starting pitcher that won the Cy Young. Will the voters be willing to vote for someone with 3 fewer than that? Maybe Hernandez' best chance to win would be for Price and/or Lester to get one more win, thus reaching 20. Maybe that would split the vote (between them and Sabathia) among those voters who favor wins. It'll be interesting...
 
The AL MVP will also be interesting. Most people seem to think Josh Hamilton has been the best player. But he hasn't played in more than three weeks. Can you win the MVP while missing most of September? 
 
Roy Halladay seems to be the runaway NL Cy Young winner, although Adam Wainright is really right there. And most people seem to think Joey Votto will win the NL MVP, even though his numbers aren't all that different than Albert Pujols' or Carlos Gonzalez'. 
 
We'll see...

jcumming · Sep 29, 2010

I will stick with my earlier choice of David Price.
 
As far as MVP votes I always ask the question, "Where would the team be without ________?"
 
 
That makes it hard for me to think of an MVP on a last place team because they wouldn't have placed lower without him.
 
Joey Votto....just because he's a good Canajun kid a a Canajun hasn't been MVP since waaay back a couple of years when Justin Morneau won. <img alt="smile.gif" class="bbcode_smiley" src="http://files.kickrunners.com/smilies//smile.gif">

Notey · Sep 30, 2010

My ballot:
1) Hernandez
2) Lester
3) Price
 
2) and 3) could swap based on last starts. Hernandez is so far ahead of the others in everything but wins, he's nailed it down for me.
 
If I were to keep going...
 
My next 3 would be Sabathia, Buchholz and Cahill, not in that order.
 
I think wins should be a tie breaker. Look at K's, WHIP, ERA, IP and if all things are somewhat equal go to wins to make the final determination.
 

<div class="quote-container">Quote:
<div class="quote-block">Originally Posted by jcumming <a href="/forum/thread/69906/the-cy-young-race#post_1950158"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" style="border-right:0px solid;border-top:0px solid;border-left:0px solid;border-bottom:0px solid;"></a> 
As far as MVP votes I always ask the question, "Where would the team be without ________?"
 
 
That makes it hard for me to think of an MVP on a last place team because they wouldn't have placed lower without him.
 
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True, but I guess you could say "Imagine how much worse they would've been without him?" My feelings on this are that just because a guy plays for a last place team, he shouldn't automatically be disqualified. If a guy goes out and has a monster season for a below average and his head and shoulders above everyone else, should he still get it? I think so. Again, I'd use this as a tie breaker for voting. If guys have similar stats, I'd be more inclined to vote for the guy on the better team.

jcumming · Sep 30, 2010

<div class="quote-container">Quote:
<div class="quote-block">Originally Posted by Notey
 
True, but I guess you could say "Imagine how much worse they would've been without him?" My feelings on this are that just because a guy plays for a last place team, he shouldn't automatically be disqualified. If a guy goes out and has a monster season for a below average and his head and shoulders above everyone else, should he still get it? I think so. Again, I'd use this as a tie breaker for voting. If guys have similar stats, I'd be more inclined to vote for the guy on the better team.
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I just think they should change it from "most valuable player" to "best player" then you don't have the argument built in about what they mean to their team. I really could argue that some utillity infielder made 2 game saving plays and hit a walk-off homer in the 12 games he played, but was so incredibly positive on the bench and in the clubhouse that he was clearly the "most valuable" player on that team.

gatorbob · Sep 30, 2010

I pretty much agree with Notey here. I think that Cy Young and MVP are individual awards. Making the playoffs is a team accomplishment. I tend to put less weight in things like Wins for a pitcher (based highly on the team's help, as evidenced by King Felix' numbers this year) and RBIs for a hitter (can't get one without a teammate being on base, unless you hit a homer), and I put more emphasis on things like WHIP and OPS. Of course, I've always been a bit of a stat geek, and a fan of SABR and sabermetrics since I first read a Bill James Baseball Abstract back in the mid 80s...
 
I don't completely dismiss Wins or playoff position. Sure, it means a little more if a guy is playing in pressure-packed games all year than if his team has just been playing out the string since mid-May. So just like Notey, I'll use it as a tie breaker. And heck, the Win total is the only thing that keeps King Felix from winning the Cy in a rout. But if you want to use the "pressure" argument, does that really even apply here? Yeah, Price and Sabathia are both on teams that made the playoffs. But has there really been any doubt that they would make the playoffs? The Red Sox sorta hung around, but they haven't been serious contenders for a month or two. So really, has there been any more pressure on Price or Sabathia than there has been on Hernandez? They've all had the last two months to focus on padding their stats. The only guys with real pressue on them in the AL Cy Young race have been Lester and Buchholz, since they were on a team on the outside of the playoff race looking in. And I weigh that so much that I put them 4th and 5th on my ballot...

AdCo · Sep 30, 2010

hernandez will win. more innings by a LOT, more quality starts..

the Cy Young race

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