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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I borrowed this from the big ultra list. I thought it was neat that Western States was used as the anchor.<br>
============================================<br><br><br>
Relative Event Finish Time to Western States 100 Mile .<br><br>
Sample Criteria:<br><br>
Same individual completed the listed event and<br>
one of the following 100 mile run in the SAME YEAR:<br>
Western States, Vermont, Leadville, Angeles Creset, Wasatch,<br>
Kettle Moraine, Hardrock, Rocky Raccoon, and Mohican.<br><br>
The relative percentage is first averaged over the samples<br>
for each 100 mile reference, then normalized to Western States,<br>
then averaged over the nine 100 mile runs listed.<br><br>
The relative uncertainy of the analysis is<br>
porportional to 1/sqrt(sample size).<br><br>
Time<br>
Dist. Rel to Sample Event Name<br>
WS100 Size<br><br>
135m 157% 133 BadWater Ultra Marathon<br>
100m 155% 904 Hard Rock 100 Mile<br>
100m 131% 58 HURT Trail 100 Mile<br>
100m 117% 3279 Wasatch Front 100 Mile<br>
100m 113% 45 Mount Rushmore Trail 100 Mile<br>
100m 113% 115 Bear 100 Mile<br>
100m 112% 90 Bighorn Mountain Trail Run<br>
100m 111% 396 Massanutten Mountain Trails 100 Mile<br>
100m 108% 14 Tahoe Rim Trail 100 miles<br>
100m 108% 2156 Angeles Crest 100 Mile<br>
100m 107% 12 Grand Teton Races 100m<br>
100m 106% 79 Superior Sawtooth 100 Mile<br>
100m 105% 80 Cascade Crest 100 Mile<br>
100m 103% 4508 Leadville Trail 100 Miles<br>
100m 100% 7497 Western States 100 Miles<br>
100m 99% 79 San Diego 100 Mile<br>
100m 96% 46 McNaughton Park Trail Runs<br>
100m 93% 72 Rio Del Lago 100 Mile<br>
100m 93% 41 Ancient Oaks 100<br>
100m 91% 66 Haliburton Forest 100<br>
100m 90% 984 Mohican Trail 100 Mile<br>
100m 89% 108 Javelina Jundred 100 Mile<br>
100m 88% 341 Old Dominion 100 Mile One Day<br>
100m 88% 34 SULPHUR SPRINGS 100 Mile<br>
100m 88% 451 Arkansas Traveller 100 Mile<br>
100m 88% 628 Kettle Moraine 100 mile<br>
100m 84% 3533 Vermont Trail 100 Miles<br>
100m 84% 91 Heartland 100 Mile<br>
100k 81% 68 HURT Trail 100k option<br>
100m 81% 281 Umstead 100 Mile<br>
100m 81% 1654 Rocky Raccoon 100m<br>
100m 80% 41 Old Dominion 100 mile Memorial Day<br>
100m 76% 22 Dan Rossi Memorial Ultras
 

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It's an interesting way to do an analysis. From my personal experience, I have participated in three of these 100 milers (Sulphur Springs, Haliburton, and Vermont), and would put those three in the reverse order of what this ranking shows.<br><br>
Does this ranking fit with other people who have done multiple different 100s?
 

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I've done Vermont, McNaughton and Grand Teton<br><br>
I agree with the comparisons for sure. However.. I had MANY runners at this years VT100 tell me that VT is tougher than Western States. So.. Who knows.<br><br>
AJW told me that the Teton race should be MUCH higher as well.. like.. top 4 toughest. I'm not sure about that.
 

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Funny, my only two hundreds--Umstead and Wasatch--are fourth from the bottom and fourth from the top. The #'s work for me: my Wasatch time can be pretty closely predicted from my Umstead time based on the data. This seems like the most objective assessment of relative 100 difficulties that I've seen.<br><br>
Hardrock 155%? Hmm--maybe I'd be lucky to NOT to get picked in the lottery on Sunday.
 

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It seems pretty consistant with my experience, but I would put Cascade Crest at a higher percentage than Tahoe Rim.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
No, the Barkley is not a race but a freak show. The course is created so nobody can finish and when someone does, they change it. Besides you can't compare a race when you have no or so few data points.
 

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Keep in mind that some races will attract more top runners (like VT), so the average time might be lower than an easier but more lightly-attended event. It might also be more likely to be a "goal" race, because of the competition.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Your math may be right but don't include Vermont. It's one of my favorite races but it's not high on the list for top runners and hasn't even maxed out in the last three years(corresponding to the Forced Volunteer Requirement) of three years ago but I'll skip my tirade on that issue. <img alt="uhoh2.gif" src="http://files.kickrunners.com/smilies/uhoh2.gif"> The heavy hitters don't make any further east than middle America.
 

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there's a more complete list at realendurance.com. It includes 50k's 50m's and ironman tris using the same formula.
 
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