<i>In my mind, the first question you need to answer is how confident are you that you can do the race at goal pace?</i><br><br><b>Scale of 1 to 10; Eightish.</b><br><br><i>You mention that you are coming off winter base building. Was that all long, slow distance or did it include speed/tempo work? Did you do any tempo work at goal pace or faster?</i><br><br><b>All long and slow. No speed/tempo (at all). Nothing at goal pace.</b><br><br><i>If so, how did it feel? Have you previously run this distance and/or race and if so, how does your goal pace compare to previous efforts?</i><br><br><b>I have previously run this race. This goal will be a 35 minute PR. Trust me, this is not as stupid as it sounds (!). I'll be 20 lbs lighter on race day than I was then, and have done several months consistently progressive mileage. When last time it was the furthest distance I had run (including training).</b><br><br><i>If you are confident that you can run for the full 16 at the goal pace, then a reasonable approach might be to go for even mile splits and then throw in anything you have left in the last couple miles.</i><br><br><b>This is the approach that appeals to me the most as it seems least complicated. I'm still a few weeks out so have plenty of time to decide.</b><br><br><i>On the other hand, if this is an aggressive goal for you, it might be wise to run slightly slower than goal pace for the first half and then try for a negative split by speeding up over the second half. That way if the goal is too aggressive, you can back off the second half.<br><br>
You also need to figure out which approach best suits your race personality. Some people just like to run comfortable for the first part of the race and go into the second half feeling like they have a lot left in the tank. Others (like myself) like to 'bank' a few seconds per mile during the first part of the race and then try and hold on during the second half. Only way that you'll figure this out is to try various approaches during a race. It's all part of the fun.<br><br>
Given that it's your first race trying for a specific pace, I'd probably recommend that you go a few seconds slower than goal pace during the first half and then pick it up if you feel good for the second half.<br><br>
I'd take a watch that does lap splits and hit the lap button every mile. You still need to listen to your body and if its telling you you're going too hard, then you need to back off. Also be aware that its by no means unheard of race directors mis-marking the mile markers, so a particular mile could be longer or shorter. After a while you'll develop a feel for what your goal pace feels like and the watch will become less important.</i><br><br><b>Got the watch, and will be taking the lap-splits. I had my garmin on last time I did this race and the miles seemed fairly accurate, but I hear you on the possibility of mismarking.</b><br><br><br><i>I wouldn't recommend following someone else unless you know and trust them. They could end up being a poor pacer, speed up significantly for a mile and toasting both you and them.<br><br>
Mike</i><br><br>
Thanks Mike (and everyone!) for good replies. Food for thought.