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<b>Fantasy Philly Running</b><br><br>
This thread is devoted to an attempt to run our own fantasy sport, where we ourselves can be on the teams. Now we can pretend that we are Derek Jeter or Tom Brady...<br><br>
Here are the <b>Rules</b>:<br><br><b>Step1</b>: This is only open to people running one of the races in Philadelphia on Marathon weekend (Nov 18 ). I suppose it would be possible to include people running in other races, but I think that would get rather confusing. And since this is our first attempt at something like this, I'd like to keep it as simple as possible. If this works out successfully, then next time we could open it up to multiple venues. But for now, only Philly people can enter at this step.<br><br>
From now until October 31, anybody who is running one of the races in Philly (Full Marathon, Half Marathon or 8k) and wants to participate should <b>reply to this thread with the race they are running and the time they predict for themselves in that event</b>. They can then follow that up with an explanation as to why they predict that specific time for themselves. That explanation can be as long or as short as you'd like, but the more detailed it is, the more likely you are to convince people to trust your prediction. Anybody who wants to participate, please have your replies here by Oct 31.<br><br><b>Step2</b>: This is open to anybody, whether you are participating in Philly or not. Starting Nov 1, you read thru all the predictions and draft a "team" of Philly runners. The exact number of team members will be determined later, based on the number of participants in Step 1. I would imagine that each team will consist of 3 to 5 runners. You will choose your runners based on who you think will actually finish their race closest to their predicted time. You are not choosing based on speed. A marathoner who predicts a 5:00 time and finishes in 5:02 is better than one who predicts a 2:30 time and finishes in 2:25.<br><br>
Your team may consist of runners from any combination of the three races. For example, if we decide that each team will have three runners, you may choose three marathoners, three 8k runners, or one runner doing each of the three races, etc. You cannot choose yourself to be on your own team.<br><br><b>Scoring</b>: A Full Marathon is twice as long as a Half Marathon (duh) and is approximately five times as long as an 8k. Since it is harder to predict a time for a longer distance, scores will be determined like so: For a Marathoner, the score will be equal to the difference between predicted time and actual time. For a Half Marathoner, the score will be equal to twice the difference between predicted time and actual time. For a 8k'er, the score will be equal to five times the difference between predicted time and actual time.<br><br>
For example: Your team consists of three runners, PersonA, PersonB, and PersonC, who run the FM, HM, and 8K respectively. PersonA predicts for themselves a FM of 3:00:00, and runs the race in 2:56:30. Their difference is 03:30, thus their score is 03:30. PersonB predicts a HM of 2:00:00 and runs it in 2:01:30. Their difference is 01:30 and thus their score is 03:00. PersonC predicts an 8k time of 45:00 and runs it in 43:50. Their difference is 01:10, thus their score is 05:50. And the overall score for your team is 03:30 plus 03:00 plus 05:50, which equals 12:20. The player with the lowest overall team score is the winner.<br><br><b>Prizes</b>: There are no prizes, other than the love and admiration of your fellow players. We won't play for money or any other objects because we don't want anybody to feel guilty for running too slow (or too fast!) on race day, thus screwing up the score for anyone who had them on their team. Special acknowledgements will also go out to the runner that gains the most trust pre-race (i.e. gets chosen for the most teams) and to the runner whose personal score is the lowest (i.e. finishes closest to their predicted time, factoring in the distance multiplier).<br><br>
So, from now until October 31, please take part in Step 1. The more people who participate, the better this game will be!
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
I'll start off with Step 1.<br><br>
I'll be running the <b>Full Marathon</b>, and I predict for myself a time of <b>3:47:00</b>.<br><br>
Here are my reasons: I have run five marathons so far: Chicago Oct '05 4:27:48. New Jersey Apr '06 4:17:03. Las Vegas Dec '06 4:04:56. Cincy May '07 3:48:56. Vermont City May '07 4:17:30. So I made a nice improvement each time (except for VT, which was only 3 weeks after Cincy, and I wasn't going for speed). So I'd like to think that I can now improve on my PR of 3:48:56.<br><br>
However, our first child is due any day now. Thus she'll be about 5 weeks old when Philly Marathon Weekend rolls around. And my sleeping schedule will certainly be affected over the next few weeks. Thus I will probably not be at the peak of well-restedness on Nov 18.<br><br>
So my prediction is that I do set a new PR, but not by much.
 

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I am running the Half Marathon and I predict a finish time of 1:58. PR for this distance is 2:02 out of the three HMs that I have run. I think I can beat it, but not by much since my training hasn't been what it should be. But I really want a sub 2:00 HM time. So I'm gonna gut it out.<br><br>
ETA: In addition, the three other HMs I have done have been hilly, this course is supposed to be fast and flat.
 

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I am the one not to pick!<br><br>
I have run 4 marathons.<br>
Chicago, Oct. 2005 - 5:25<br>
ING GA, Mar. 2007 - 5:30<br>
Country Music, Apr 2007 - 6:18<br>
Madison, May 2007 - 5:18<br><br>
My training has been continuously interrupted by peroneal tendonitis and a strained soleus. My training is not good. I have a marathon coming up on 10/28, so I might change my prediction before the cutoff, but for now my predicted time for Philly is 5:10.
 

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I am running the HM at Philly.<br><br>
I predict my time to be 2:25:00.<br><br>
My PR time is 2:23:04 at the Pig in May.<br><br>
While this route is less hilly, my training for the Pig was much more consistent. This time around, I'm mostly just getting in my long runs on the weekend and not much if anything during the week. I do not expect a PR this time. However, I do think I will probably be better than my 2:28:-- at Detroit last year.
 

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Serious business, this fantasy running, so let me begin immediately:<br><br><b>GatorBob:</b> I like the fact that this runner has some experience under his belt with 5 marathons in the bag, and beyond that I know from his postings that he's very diligent about his running, but with a <b>boblet</b> due any day now, I say nature is going to be trumped by nurture[ing said boblet]. I think a marathon PR is on this runner's horizon, but don't look for it next month.<br><br><b>BigGahoona:</b> 3 half marathons to her running resume and a realistic predicted finish. In the end, I like the fact that she's ready to "gut it out" for a PR. Add this one to your stable.<br><br><b>Nettie:</b> A lot of pluck in this runner, but nagging injuries have me concerned that she might end up on IR. Re-evaluate after 10/28.<br><br><b>bard73:</b> Xena could not ask for better running companion. The more the merrier with this one, look to add if other runners join her at her pace; she'll not be dropped.
 

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I'm running the 8k and I predict my time to be 48 minutes. Reason: My training runs are consistently between 10-10:30 m/m, and I expect to stick close to that but a little better.
 

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<b>I love Speedy's commentary!</b><br><br><b>Me in Philly</b> - I'm running the 8K and predict I'll finish sub 36:00. I ran a 4 miler in 30:08 in February of this year, on a hilly course and have since built up some more speed, esp. in shorter distances. I'll be coming off several longer distances and ready to get this sucker done and fast. <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.kickrunners.com/forum/images/smilies/wink.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="Wink">
 

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I am running the HM in Philly and will predict a finish time after this Sunday's long run of 13 miles. <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.kickrunners.com/forum/images/smilies/smile.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="Smile">
 

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Let's see.<br><br>
I'm doing the full. I'm predicting a 3:07 for myself. That would give me a PR.<br><br>
Let's see. Good stuff first. I trained my rear off during the summer and know I'm in sub-3:00 shape. The weather should be nice and cool. I "ran" a marathon last weekend and had a miserable time and didn't run that much of it so revenge is on my mind. And there is only one reason for running that fast, Boston.<br><br>
Now the variables, warm weather means I run like crap. Second, I did run a marathon last weekend and have never run marathons this close together, so who knows how my body is going to react.
 

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<b>Speedy's</b> commentary is classic. I am definitely in for this. I am running the 8 K, and will make a prediction later this month - close to the deadline. Prediction will be based on a 5 K I am running on Oct 28.
 

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I will start a spreadsheet to keep track of everything. This gonna be good!!!! Oh and <b>SS</b> you better keep the odds making going, love it!!!
 

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<b>Semispeedy</b>, that commentary is funny! I can't wait to see you add more as people join in.<br><br>
I have run 3 total HM's. My 1st was 2:48:--, however, and not really indicative of what is realistic. The two I mentioned in my other post are for more predictive of where I could be now.<br><br>
Interestingly, Nick said his predicted time for me at Philly is 2:19:00.
 

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Continuing:<br><br><b>Jill:</b> If she can manage her splits as well as she has managed the 30s Philly T-shirt program you can take this one to the bank. I make the over/under 47:30.<br><br><b>RunningINnyc:</b> The last time the streets of Philadelphia faced this kind of determination the guy running past the museum of art was named Rocky Balboa. Considering the let-down that was Chicago last weekend, I think Maria could run this 35-flat while pulling me behind her in a wagon. That being said, there's a little race called the NYC Marathon just ahead of Philly on Maria's schedule . . . and running up and down the bridges of lower Manhattan for almost 4 hours should take a little tiger out of her tank for the 8k. All things considered, I like her at 36:00.<br><br><b>Theia:</b> Strong core=strong runner. Anxiously awaiting latest long run results.<br><br><b>baggio16:</b> That kind of speed should be stuffed, mounted and put on pedestal in the MOMA next to <b>Pacer Chris'</b> pipes. The big question really is what is what is your BQ? 3:10 or 3:15?<br><br><b>Litchfield Hills:</b> 5k on 10/28 will be a perfect predictor. Stay tuned.<br><br>
SS
 

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OK, I'll have a bash. I', running the full marathon, and as at today, I will predict 3:50. I had been hoping for a BQ of 3:35:59 but feel I will be 6 weeks short of prep time for that, and will save something for another crack at Carlsbad next January. So I am aiming to break 4 hours.<br><br>
I ran 1:48 for a half last month, and will be able to be more accurate after Dublin on Oct 29th, which I am running as a training run (20 miles at 9 minute pace - then jog home). Stay tuned.<br><br>
Liam
 

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I'm doing the half in Philly. My previous PR for this distance is 2:10 and change. I would love to see that again, but it's hard to say. Since having the baby this past june, I've done some shorter distances with some PRs and a DFL (oddly enough, one of the PRs was in the race I finished DFL). I'm running a half on Oct. 28 so I'll update my predicted time after that.<br><br>
Thanks for working on this Bob and Lori!
 

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I'm currently planning on the HM for Philly. My PR for this distance was set in Sept at 1:16.<br><br>
Out of towners, note that this is a fairly flat and fast course. Temps are usually about 40s. The only decent hill comes in miles 9-10 and cost me about 20 seconds last year. Ballpark.<br><br>
Ideally I would make a run at challenging my PR, but I was dinged up after that training and have taken a number of down weeks. I will not be racing again until a few weeks before Philly, and if that goes poorly I go on IR. So will I be faster from having a good rest after a hard year training? Or rusty and not able to hold a hard pace?<br><br>
I'll go with rusty. 1:19 and change.<br><br><b>Bob & Lori:</b> I propose an addition to the rules - I think everyone should have to have themselves on their team so as to additionally motivate them to hit their goal! If we can figure a way I think people should get more points for going under their time and less for going over.
 

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Ok, I'm running the full. My time prediciton is 3:42:27.<br><br>
Why? I ran a 3:44:54 at Cincy in May, which is a PR. Sept. 29 in Akron, I was just hoping for a sub-4, but was not confident about even doing that. I was 10 pounds heavier than I wanted to be and just didn't feel it. Plus, it's a fairly tough course. I finished in 3:47:25, much to my surprise. I managed the race poorly, going out way to fast. I hit the halfway point about a 3:38 pace. But the hills in the second half and the pace caught up with me and I died the last 3 miles.<br><br>
But, as your President... er, wait, what am I campaigning for again? <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.kickrunners.com/forum/images/smilies/icon_scratch.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="scratch"> Oh yea, I think I have a good chance at a PR if I can be 5-10 pounds lighter (200-205 lbs) and am recovered enough from running a tough Akron race. It should be noted that I ran Philly in 3:56:51 last year (which was a PR at the time) after running Akron a few weeks before. I will likely be shooting for sub 3:40 in this race, but I'm guessing I'll just miss that mark.<br><br>
Thank you for your consideration. And god bless America!... And even Canada.
 

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Hi, im <b>Frankie</b> and im an alcohol.....oops wrong thread <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.kickrunners.com/forum/images/smilies/biggrin.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="Very Happy"><br><br>
I am running the HM and my predicted time is 2:50<br><br>
I have run two previous HMs. San Jose '06 I ran 2:35, Cinci 5/07 I PRed with a 2:28.<br><br>
Why the slower finishing time you ask? While knocking 7 minutes of my PR in Cinci, I hurt msyelf and I havent been the same running wise since. My training has sucked, ive had my fair share of issues and I havent run much. Any aspirations of a new PR on a flat and fast course like Philly got thrown out.<br><br>
I was presented with a unique opportunity just recently. See we have amongst us a sexy librarian, who is lacking some self confidence when it comes to her running abilities. She was unsure if she could run and finish this HM. So <b>Moon</b> and I have taken it upon ourselves to pace said librarian to an acceptable finish time of 2:50. We know shes capable of it and I hope that with what little training I have gotten in and some determination, Ill be right there with her at the finish line.
 
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